I'll give you some examples:
VHS vs. Betamax:
Video producers used to have to provide all of their movies on multiple video formats (VHS, Betamax, etc.). In this case the middleware, VHS tape player/recorders were more successful, so outside of Japan (where Beta lived on) you saw a rapid consolidation or format for the VHS format and interoperability. In this case it didn't matter that Beta happened to be a better video format medium (as is often the case), the better marketing company won out.
DVD +/- :
Another example, one that I alluded to where some key vendors create a consortium to force the market in a given direction is your '+' and '-' DVD recording formats. Again, it was the middleware, not the backend mechanics, that set the pace. Again the 'lesser' format still exist[ed] but anyone trying to sell their videos knew what format they needed to produce a video that was most available to consumers to maximize sales/profitability.
Market Dominance sometimes=new standard:
The company I work for provides both Web and Messaging Security Services SaaS. The 'standard' here that they care about is only the OS. That's because they are writing an application and that's the next layer (towards the hardware) that it interfaces with. What hardware, virtualization technology, etc. the Colo uses to host our applications is frankly irrelevant to profitability, successful delivery of product and services to the end-customer, and availability of our product to perform it's intended function. My company is one of those companys that have 'thought leadership' and drive what becomes 'standard' for others in the same business vertical. 6 months after we have something, others do and it becomes 'standard,' an expectation.
IETF & ISO:
This example is similar to Jeff's, in that each of our products are SaaS (Intuit is one of our customers), but the same idea historically rings true elsewhere. Think about it: how many times has the IETF or ISO tried to push/force a standard, only to reverse course and essentially document as 'standard' what the dominant player has established?
'Rapid Consolidation':
Lastly, I think the 'rapid' consolidation/standardization happens when a market graduates from infancy/emerging to established. This consolidation/standardization of 'how things are done' and what the sales/business model(s) are, are part of what makes it 'established.' Unless you're as old as me, nothing in IT takes 5-15 years anymore - proof is you were using Windows 3.1 and Workgroups with no Internet (for most of us) 15 years ago! The world, let alone the IT world doesn't take that long anymore to change and adapt. I think 'short', 'medium' and 'long' in this context are: short=1-2yrs; medium=2-4yrs; long=4=6yrs. Keeping our eyes open outside of IT, let's also keep in mind our new Presidents pledge to get broadband access to every home, etc. This means significant, rapid expansion and enhancement to our voice/data infrastructure which should only assist the speed of moving to the cloud.
We can't forget to pick our heads up every once in a while and see how the world will affect what we're doing.
Daniel Scafuto
On Fri, Dec 19, 2008 at 3:45 AM, John Brothers <johnbr@gmail.com> wrote:
Sorry, I don't see any sort of forcing. I see Google, Sun, HP, IBM, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle and SAP (at least) all working hard to create proprietary platforms that do certain things well, and other things poorly. I see people building apps to work with one, and having a terrible time integrating with each other. I see businesses springing up that capitalize on this, and acting as integrators, and providing just enough connectivity that the "big guys" are able to delay standardization for a long time - 5 to 10 to 15 years.
And I don't see any sort of rapid consolidation, interoperability and standardization of Cloud infrastructure. I'm not even sure what you're talking about. Can you elaborate?
Let me make myself clear - yes, interop and standardization would be good things for end users. Doesn't mean they're going to happen, and a lot of people have a strong vested interest in not letting that happen so their businesses don't become commoditized.--
On Thu, Dec 18, 2008 at 8:15 PM, Collins, Jeff <Jeff_Collins@intuit.com> wrote:But I agree that interoperability will be forced very quickly toward some kind of interop standard. I also agree that the most widely adopted early protocols will probably just become standard (e.g. OFX). Identity, authorization, and other standards will quickly become very high priority.We're seeing the incredibly rapid consolidation, interoperability and standardization of Cloud infrastructure, and I think it will rapidly drive different behavior of applications one level above it in the Cloud. The end user will benefit because the applications they use will essentially be designed from the start to work together well based on being Componentized from the start as said below.
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