Wednesday, December 24, 2008

[ Cloud Computing ] Re: The Future of the Full Service OS

If you look at the hierarchy as it stands, applications require OSs for services, and hypervisors basically allow those OSs to run multiple times on a  given piece of hardware.  Everything else is gravy.

Say what you will about Windows, but anyone who remembers the old days of DOS where each app had to maintain its own drivers for printers, modems, etc. or even back to CP/M where every terminal, keyboard and disk drive needed individual support, we see that Windows was a very attractive way to abstract applications from the hardware.  In addition, it did provide a common user interface (which was attempted by many in the non-graphical DOS era) as well as multi-tasking, which also had been attempted in primitive ways before (remember TSRs and Quarterdeck DesQ ?)

The best thing about Windows was that in being nearly ubiquitous, it drove down training costs, and allowed (for the most part) a common OS for both clients and servers.  Windows NT squashed its opponents such as NetWare and Banyan, despite the fact those offered many superior core technologies.

Linux still serves as a very viable alternative, however its fragmentation has cost it market share compared to Windows.

Taken further, the incredible success of VMware (and the emergence of alternatives like Xen, Solaris containers, etc.) were inevitable as hardware advanced to far exceed its exploitation by a single OS per machine model.  Virtualization created its own set of needs (live migration, virtual networking, Physical to Virtual conversion, storage virtualization, etc.) unique to the new capabilities.  As Windows abstracted APPLICATIONS from hardware, Hypervisors take the next logical step and abstract the OS from hardware.

Granted, a hybrid approach to virtualization such as Solaris containers DOES, in fact, combine the OS and virtualization stack, I suspect the fact that is is a proprietary technology would naturally limit its market share to a large extent.  It is the ability to support multiple OS flavors and versions side-by-side that is a great part of virtualization's appeal, and 3rd party hypervisors not tied to any OS will likely continue to do this best. 

It's kind of funny, that the management features unique to virtualization arose to solve problems that never before existed, but in the end, the benefits of virtualization end up an easy-tradeoff for the additional necessity to learn some new tools, and architect in a way to best take advantage of the technology.

I don't see the hypervisor taking over the role of OS anytime soon.  It's just my opinion, but keeping it simple will pay dividends.  I can, howewer, see the role (or importance) of the OS diminished significantly as "virtual appliances" evolve. 

Check out www.rpath.com (they seem to have been doing this the longest) !!  If you could acquire an app running on an open-source Linux distro that fulfilled all the needs of your organazation, you would find little excuse to select a similar app that requires a full  Windows license.

In the end, I think SUPPORT will be the big issue for most.  I recall, when I worked at HP, our big selling point was that we supported GUEST Operating Systems as well as the underlying hypervisors.  That was a HUGE selling feature, as Operating Systems vendors (at the time) chose not to support their wares on virtualized platforms.

Cloud Computing has the opportunity to take that question off the plates of end-users.



On Wed, Dec 24, 2008 at 12:13 PM, <barbara@p..com> wrote:

All,

This thread started under topic of: Role of Windows Appliances and
Cloud
I opened a dedicated topic.

THE QUESTION (Response from trimark [m_cathcart@...co.uk] follows.
What is Future of conventional full service OS in the world of
virtualization.

OS's run on top of Hypervisors. And...Hypervisors are enablers of IAAS
because, as we all know, most existing software systems dwell
comfortably in OS's level of granularity, and are not at home in SAAS
or PAAS.

I am looking at the question from a broad perspective.

The complexity that is introduced by black box hypervisors troubles
me. I feel the solve a problem already solved by IBM and other big box
vendors decades ago (VM/CMS).

So, with that in mind, the whole thing begs the question, what is the
future of the full service OS?
Do they morph into a meta OS, that can function in a manner like a
hypervisor OR full service OS or both (in essence something like a
mainframe OS).

Barbara Bour

RESPONSE M_CARTCART
Barbara

You ask what is the future of full service OS's and what next.

I'd say this, that its pretty obvious that services will be
increasingly provided by the hypervisor and virtualztion layer, esp
[ecially networking and storage, but also possible virtual memory, I/O
etc.

If the OS running on the hypervisor provides the same service and
doesn't do this WITH the hypervisor then it will be inefficient, and
generate overhead. There are a few possible solutions to this, one is
for the OS NOT to provide the same function, thats unlikely with full
OS's, or as part of initialization, they recognise they are running in
a virtualized environment, and cede that function to the hypervisor.

The latter makes more sense, but requires compatibility between the
hypervisor function and the OS funtion at the application level. For
higher level functions and new technology, thats easy. For lower level
functions this is less likely. It also removes much of the opportunity
for the OS to provide differentiated services.

Back to your question, what of the future for full service os?

I'd predict that most will do their damdest to link themselves with
their own hypervisors. In that way they can continue to provide
differentiated services that allow them to continue to be sold at a
premium. However, these OS's will generally lag behind emerging
composite OS's, where the hypervisor and the OS are made from a
networked, interconnected set of services, with little generation or
overhead between their services.

It would be interesting to know where/how you think IBM solved this
decade ago? As I see it, the only place IBM really solved this was in
VM/CMS. Where there was a strict hypervisor/virtualization layer that
had unique calls for functions, and the CMS OS which developed into a
purely virtualized OS and couldn't run without VM.

Other IBM implementations including AIX on Power did this to a lesser
degree, but really still are full function OS's that use
virtualization sparingly as their host.

We are likely to see an effort obsfucate the OS to providing grouped
higher level services that are interfaces into homogenous full service
OS's, these will provide a single point of automation, management,
etc. as well as scheduling and recovery. In this way, the full
function OS remains and the function that you are looking for from a
cloud is provided by a layer on top of the OS, rather than underneath
the OS at teh hypervisor layer. From a management, operations
perspective there is little differtence. From an apllication and
operational efficiency perspective there is a significant difference.





--
Cheers,
Jan

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[ Cloud Computing ] Re: Compute surface as a traded commodity?

On Wed, Dec 24, 2008 at 11:18 AM, dave corley <dcorley75@...com> wrote:
We'll witness a pre-cambrian explosion of end user, middlemen, and cloud providers over the next fifty years. Eventually, natural economic selection will take its course. Those in each

Fifty years?  Wow.  I'm going to go with five.  Sure, the economic model of supply/demand and natural selection will hold for quite some time, but I'm expecting the whole paradigm of computing to change many many many times by then.  Just look back - 20 years ago stand alone desktops were the norm.  15 years ago, the client-server model.  10 years ago, the internet was taking off, 5 years ago, virtualization was gaining acceptance.   Whatever the next hurdle or limitation is, our innovation overcomes it.   Now we're "in the cloud" <wince> with software being provided on demand as a service, the sky is the limit, and we're not stopping there.

--Shane
http://shanebrauner.org/
http://twitter.com/shanebrauner
http://www.10gen.com/

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[ Cloud Computing ] Re: Will Cloud Displace Internal IT Services For Data Centers?

Sure, cost savings are the big engine that keeps this truck a-movin', but where I think we're heading isn't solely the same old financial bottom line trade off between choice A and B for the same solution, but a fairly fundamental shift in the way IT / computing is done. 

Right now, virtualization is providing the stepping stone to move out of the traditional datacenter/IT shop model to infrastructure services (arguably, managed hosting is a step further ahead).  The problem with this though is that as a company, you're still having to worry about the business need : infrastructure link at a fairly low level. 

Where we're heading is toward the virtualization / abstraction of the next layers up.  Companies will subscribe to services that satisfy the business need directly, rather than satisfying a requirement to service the business.  For example, instead of buying a managed server, which you then have your IT folks manage an email service on, you'll buy that end managed service directly.  (yeah, I picked an example where it's already happened).  This is following out in other areas - CRM, desktop apps, etc.  You know 'em already.

There's going to be a war between infrastructure providers (just like we saw with the commoditization of PC's), and the end-user facing software will have the same types of competition we've seen for years, with Big Giants with tons of functionality and a big customer-base trying to stay ahead of innovative fast movers.

A wise man once told me, if there's a war, sell bullets.  The platforms that allow for an easy switch between infrastructure providers, and are compatable with the big software players, but allow for fast, easy, development are going to win big.

--Shane
http://shanebrauner.org/
http://twitter.com/shanebrauner
http://www.10gen.com/

On Wed, Dec 24, 2008 at 11:00 AM, dave corley <dcorley75@...com> wrote:
Interesting perspective. What will drive the success or failure of this peak-use, hybrid cloud computing modeis its ability to save money for the CFO/CIO. For most applications, enterprises normally simply over-provision, suffering additional capex and consequent opex. Opex burden is endured for 100% of year. Capex is a single hit. Virtually providing peak resources on-demand has vale proposition of paying for capital and operations only as needed. If the specific application is only expected to peak with Gaussian probability, AND if the peak only occurs, say, 5% of the year, and if the peak demand MUST be satisfied orthe enterprise suffers from custoer satisfactio or other business metric, then elastic, on-demand hybrid is a fit for the enterprise.

But, the large dynamic that will affect this marketand its likely implementation is labor costs (opex) balanced against performance and cost of operations.

Performance and operations costs being equal, hosting the data center in an environment in which labor costs are lower will drive the pure external cloud model.

Operations costs and labor costs being equal will drive the data center/cloud to be located nearest the centroid of the cloud-rovider's target market to optimiZe performance..

Labor costs and performance being equal, data centers are likely to be hosted in regions in which power, service redundancy, security and other operational aspects are optimized.

Perhaps specific elements of the cloud that fit these three areas may be specifically located to reduce overall costs and optimize performance...a' la' akamai. A hybrid model deliverer will win as they couple a compelling financial model to their business case.

Dave



On Wed, Dec 17, 2008 at 12:44 PM, Shane Brauner <shane.brauner@...com> wrote:
In current incarnations, your major cloud options are mainly IaaS - you get virtualized hardware just like a colo.  It's at the next levels up where you're going to start seeing more inroads into internal IT. 

I'm coming at this from the Infrastructure / Platform / Software tri-cloud perspective.  At the platform layer, you no longer need to concern yourself with any of the OS/Hardware/VM management, configuration, or administration.  You focus on your code, and forget about the machines.  That's going to have a big impact on internal IT. 

Granted - clearly not every application is suited for this. But it's a changing world.  There are aspects of business for which this is a great fit and they'll be early adopters.  This will spur development of more features and functionality which will in turn allow for adoption by a broader market.  It's a feedback loop.

Shane

--
Shane Brauner
http://www.10gen.com/
http://twitter.com/shanebrauner



On Wed, Dec 17, 2008 at 10:45 AM, Ricky Ho <rickyphyllis@.com> wrote:
Right !  Large enterprise is unlikely to displace their internal IT with Cloud computing.

However, they will use Cloud Computing in 2 specific ways, which is described here ...
http://horicky.blogspot.com/2008/12/does-cloud-computing-make-sense-for.html

Large enterprises requires a new suite of "management / middleware" technology which enable their applications to work in a hybrid environment (a mix of public + private cloud).  Also note that the cost dynamics in public and private cloud is very different.  The technology should include a cost-aware scheduler that can deploy the application components in the most cost effective way. 

Rgds,
Ricky

From: "Pietrasanta, Mark" <Mark.Pietrasanta@h.com>
To: "cloud-computing@googlegroups.com" <cloud-computing@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, December 17, 2008 6:32:11 AM
Subject: [ Cloud Computing ] Re: Gartner: Will Cloud Displace Internal IT Services For Data Centers?

But again, it seems like people are missing the point:

 

1)      Cloud Computing, at least in any of its current and pending forms, does almost nothing to reduce my internal IT staffing needs.  It's no better than Co-Lo in terms of IT staffing requirements;

2)      CC is more expensive than *any* of the alternatives, except in fringe cases (e.g. those with extremely volatile volume changes, and academic/research/"super computing" needs)

 

CC can't possibly replace internal IT services until CC *offers* some form of IT services.  And the costs have to come way way down before it becomes a realistic alternative to Co-Lo (or for the small business, setting up a machine under their desk and hiring a college kid to manage it).

 

From: cloud-computing@googlegroups.com [mailto:cloud-computing@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Krishna Kurapati
Sent: Wednesday, December 17, 2008 9:18 AM
To: cloud-computing@googlegroups.com
Subject: [ Cloud Computing ] Re: Gartner: Will Cloud Displace Internal IT Services For Data Centers?

 

My View:

 

It also depends on size of organization. For SMBs, Core applications as well as non-core applications (if any) will shift to Cloud/SaaS model. 

And with recent financial turmoil, many large companies became medium and medium became small :)

 

Any organization adopting cloud would be security/compliance, availability/accessibility.

and portability/migratability. 

 

These requirements overweigh cost advantages depending on the vertical they play into.

 

Krishna Kurapati

Cloud Ventures

 

On Wed, Dec 17, 2008 at 3:37 AM, nagarajansankar@mail.com <nagarajansankar@mail.com> wrote:



Here is an interesting article that appeared yesterday.

http://www.informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2008/12/gartner_will_cl.html?catid=cloud-computing

My take  is that possibly Non-mission critical or Non- revenue
generating applications (the so called departmental applications) in
enterprises that may form about 20 to 25% of the total IT
infrastructure and services may find their way to the clouds..

Do share your thoughts...


- Sankar
http://www.linkedin.com/in/nsk007

 















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[ Cloud Computing ] Re: Role of Windows Appliances and Cloud

Mark,

As you said the difference between OSs and hypervisors are obfuscated.
Maybe we could use neutral names:
1st layer: provide fundmental system services, running directly on
physical machines
2nd layer: provide virtualized tasks, running on the 1st layer

If I understand correctly, you think the 1st layer should be thicker
than current hypervisors, but thinner than current full service OSs;
the 2nd layer should be thicker than current runtimes:JVM, .NET, etc.,
but thinner than current full service guest OSs.

I don't know if technologies would affect how to divide the
functionalities between the 1st layer and 2nd layer. Say, multi-core,
blades, commodity hardwares, etc. The decision to scale out or up ?
Virtualization, cluster, or GRID.

Does these factors affect each others ?

Scott

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[ Cloud Computing ] Re: Role of Windows Appliances and Cloud

This discussion is getting interesting, the perspectives shared on this and other topics great!

On this topic -

I think that as long as there are applications built to run on a full service OS - there will be full service OS - and as long as the current body of applications consumed by enterprises - small, medium, large, and very large alike - the full service OS will be here awhile. I am constantly reminded of this when I hear from enterprises how many NT4 they still run - because that's what the application needs.

If you are creating new applications with new tools for new environments ( e.g. force.com, or azure ) - the OS shouldn't and doesn't matter.

I think if you have created apps in a development tool chain where the runtime environment is all the app see's - the OS shouldn't and doesn't matter either.

However - if you are an enterprise and want to accelerate adoption of an IaaS cloud - and you happen to have lots of windows apps - it seems to me that you can't readily create a Windows Appliance w/o breaking MSFT licensing.

And if you are providing an IaaS model - e.g. EC2 - and try to provide the runtime environement - IIS/ASP.Net/SQL Server - you are bound to get it wrong for many customers - because their Apps depend on specific .rev instances of each of the underlying components.

This is where the idea for a wrapper comes - a concept where you can wrap each of the components separately ( e.g. each .rev of the front end, app server, db, and other common services ) - with just enough configuration so they can run on a given OS.

The actual application - also wrapped - just points to each of these components - and all of this can be assembled and instantiated on the fly.

So if my app needs a different .rev of SQL Server in the Amazon AMI with IIS and ASP.net - no problem - it grabs it on the fly.

The wrapper - this will be similar to App Virtualization technology - which does a great job for desktop/client applications - but to work in the cloud, needs to virtualize idenity ( like the host name, networking, etc ) , services, etc.

Perhaps this is a topic for a new thread.

-----Original Message-----
From: cloud-computing@googlegroups.com [mailto:cloud-computing@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of trimark
Sent: Wednesday, December 24, 2008 10:57 AM
To: Cloud Computing
Subject: [ Cloud Computing ] Re: Role of Windows Appliances and Cloud


Barbara

You ask what is the future of full service OS's and what next.

I'd say this, that its pretty obvious that services will be
increasingly provided by the hypervisor and virtualztion layer, esp
[ecially networking and storage, but also possible virtual memory, I/O
etc.

If the OS running on the hypervisor provides the same service and
doesn't do this WITH the hypervisor then it will be inefficient, and
generate overhead. There are a few possible solutions to this, one is
for the OS NOT to provide the same function, thats unlikely with full
OS's, or as part of initialization, they recognise they are running in
a virtualized environment, and cede that function to the hypervisor.

The latter makes more sense, but requires compatibility between the
hypervisor function and the OS funtion at the application level. For
higher level functions and new technology, thats easy. For lower level
functions this is less likely. It also removes much of the opportunity
for the OS to provide differentiated services.

Back to your question, what of the future for full service os?

I'd predict that most will do their damdest to link themselves with
their own hypervisors. In that way they can continue to provide
differentiated services that allow them to continue to be sold at a
premium. However, these OS's will generally lag behind emerging
composite OS's, where the hypervisor and the OS are made from a
networked, interconnected set of services, with little generation or
overhead between their services.

It would be interesting to know where/how you think IBM solved this
decade ago? As I see it, the only place IBM really solved this was in
VM/CMS. Where there was a strict hypervisor/virtualization layer that
had unique calls for functions, and the CMS OS which developed into a
purely virtualized OS and couldn't run without VM.

Other IBM implementations including AIX on Power did this to a lesser
degree, but really still are full function OS's that use
virtualization sparingly as their host.

We are likely to see an effort obsfucate the OS to providing grouped
higher level services that are interfaces into homogenous full service
OS's, these will provide a single point of automation, management,
etc. as well as scheduling and recovery. In this way, the full
function OS remains and the function that you are looking for from a
cloud is provided by a layer on top of the OS, rather than underneath
the OS at teh hypervisor layer. From a management, operations
perspective there is little differtence. From an apllication and
operational efficiency perspective there is a significant difference.

On Dec 23, 5:24 pm, "Barbara Bour" <barb...@principiainc.com> wrote:
> The complexity that is introduced by black box hypervisors troubles me. I
> feel the solve a problem already solved by IBM and other big box vendors
> decades ago.
>
> So, with that in mind, the whole thing begs the question, what is the future
> of the full service OS?
> Do they morph into a meta OS, that can function in a manner like a
> hypervisor OR full service OS or both (in essence something like a mainframe
> OS).

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[ Cloud Computing ] The Future of the Full Service OS

All,

This thread started under topic of: Role of Windows Appliances and
Cloud
I opened a dedicated topic.

THE QUESTION (Response from trimark [m_cathcart@yahoo.co.uk] follows.
What is Future of conventional full service OS in the world of
virtualization.

OS's run on top of Hypervisors. And...Hypervisors are enablers of IAAS
because, as we all know, most existing software systems dwell
comfortably in OS's level of granularity, and are not at home in SAAS
or PAAS.

I am looking at the question from a broad perspective.

The complexity that is introduced by black box hypervisors troubles
me. I feel the solve a problem already solved by IBM and other big box
vendors decades ago (VM/CMS).

So, with that in mind, the whole thing begs the question, what is the
future of the full service OS?
Do they morph into a meta OS, that can function in a manner like a
hypervisor OR full service OS or both (in essence something like a
mainframe OS).

Barbara Bour

RESPONSE M_CARTCART
Barbara

You ask what is the future of full service OS's and what next.

I'd say this, that its pretty obvious that services will be
increasingly provided by the hypervisor and virtualztion layer, esp
[ecially networking and storage, but also possible virtual memory, I/O
etc.

If the OS running on the hypervisor provides the same service and
doesn't do this WITH the hypervisor then it will be inefficient, and
generate overhead. There are a few possible solutions to this, one is
for the OS NOT to provide the same function, thats unlikely with full
OS's, or as part of initialization, they recognise they are running in
a virtualized environment, and cede that function to the hypervisor.

The latter makes more sense, but requires compatibility between the
hypervisor function and the OS funtion at the application level. For
higher level functions and new technology, thats easy. For lower level
functions this is less likely. It also removes much of the opportunity
for the OS to provide differentiated services.

Back to your question, what of the future for full service os?

I'd predict that most will do their damdest to link themselves with
their own hypervisors. In that way they can continue to provide
differentiated services that allow them to continue to be sold at a
premium. However, these OS's will generally lag behind emerging
composite OS's, where the hypervisor and the OS are made from a
networked, interconnected set of services, with little generation or
overhead between their services.

It would be interesting to know where/how you think IBM solved this
decade ago? As I see it, the only place IBM really solved this was in
VM/CMS. Where there was a strict hypervisor/virtualization layer that
had unique calls for functions, and the CMS OS which developed into a
purely virtualized OS and couldn't run without VM.

Other IBM implementations including AIX on Power did this to a lesser
degree, but really still are full function OS's that use
virtualization sparingly as their host.

We are likely to see an effort obsfucate the OS to providing grouped
higher level services that are interfaces into homogenous full service
OS's, these will provide a single point of automation, management,
etc. as well as scheduling and recovery. In this way, the full
function OS remains and the function that you are looking for from a
cloud is provided by a layer on top of the OS, rather than underneath
the OS at teh hypervisor layer. From a management, operations
perspective there is little differtence. From an apllication and
operational efficiency perspective there is a significant difference.


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[ Cloud Computing ] Re: Cloud Computing ROI model

Geva,
 
There is an ACM paper on S3 analysis which includes costs - "Amazon S3 for Science Grids: a Viable Solution?"
Authored by Palankar, Iamnitchi, Ripeanu, and Garfinkel.

and Amazon has some case studies ... that may lead you to asking the actual companies used in the case some more detail

Wayne



> Date: Tue, 23 Dec 2008 23:41:57 -0800
> Subject: [ Cloud Computing ] Re: Cloud Computing ROI model
> From: gevaperry@gmail.com
> To: cloud-computing@googlegroups.com
>
>
> Thanks, Sankar. All your points above are valid, but not relevant to
> what I'm looking for. I was hoping that someone had worked on a
> calculation they can share that analyzes the cost benefits from
> switching to a public cloud from an on-premise data center or a
> dedicated hosting environment.
>
> You are raising some of the challenges in migrating to a cloud, which
> should of course be taken into account in the little exercise I am
> trying to work on, particularly if they add to the costs of moving to
> a cloud (management, monitoring, security, etc.) and thus reduce the
> ROI of such a move.
>
> On Dec 23, 7:54 pm, Sankar Nagarajan <nagarajansan...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
> > Geva,
> >
> > All your points holds good.
> >
> > However, for a knowledgeable customer, there are more selling points
> > or differentiators (in terms of your services) needed
> >
> > * Reliability is seen as an issue on the cloud - How does one address
> > this?
> >
> > * Protection/Security is seen as a major issue on the cloud :- How
> > does one address this?
> >
> > * Cloud deployment for moderate to complex applications is not easy -
> > (Custom App-stack/Machine Images) - How does one address this?
> >
> > * Monitoring ,Management and maintenance of deployed apps are not so
> > easy for every app- How is this addressed?
> >
> > * There are various clouds / cost models , If one can make a
> > comparison, consult and be able to help a client to find the best
> > choice for their budget and service them
> >    this would be add punch to the Value -Proposition?
> >
> > In essence, it is granted that clouds come with their inherent
> > benefits and value , However to sell this model effectively with an
> > ROI model, from a solution provider or SaaS viewpoint, a number of
> > points (i have mentioned a few) have to be considered and factored in
> > the value proposition to a end user,dependening on one's capabilities.
> >
> > Sankar Nagarajanhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/nsk007
> >
> > On Dec 24, 12:54 am, Geva Perry <gevape...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > > Hello all,
> >
> > > Has anyone developed an ROI model for cloud computing (specifically,
> > > public Infrastructure-as-a-Service a-la AWS)?
> >
> > > I'm trying to demonstrate to a few companies both the hard and "soft"
> > > cost-savings of migrating to a public cloud environment. I'm
> > > attempting to encompass as many aspects as possible. Including:
> >
> > >  -- Costs savings for servers, storage, networking, software licenses,
> > > power & cooling, real estate, system administration labor -- mainly
> > > focusing on the possibility to eliminate over-provisioning and scale
> > > on-demand with a pay-per-use pricing model
> > > -- Costs savings due to decreased provisioning time
> > > -- Shortening of application lifecycle and decreased time-to-market of
> > > new products and services
> > > -- Increased reliability (DR, etc.) at lower costs
> > > -- Increased performance
> >
> > > Of course, the model also needs to take into account various
> > > "switching costs".
> >
> > > If anyone has any concrete thoughts on the matter, or perhaps just
> > > links to quantitative case studies, it would be greatly appreciated.
> >
> > > Geva Perryhttp://gevaperry.typepad.com
>
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[ Cloud Computing ] Re: Cloud Computing ROI model

I agree with Shane, and this is why I'm cautious about the "it'll just be cheaper on the cloud" business model justification.   If CC is just a "reduced operating costs" play, it's going to be a hard sell for a long time, for all the reasons Shane identifies.  IMO the thing that will make CC explode is something new - something that one or two of you out there are thinking about, but you are either not certain, or you want to keep to yourself :)

John


On Wed, Dec 24, 2008 at 11:12 AM, Shane Brauner <shane.brauner@gmail.com> wrote:

In fairness, if you don't take those things into consideration in the cost of switching, it's going to be a mess.  Working with a big pharma client who was outsourcing all their IT to external providers proved this.  The initial calculations really just focused on the ledger costs - headcount, power, cooling, server costs, etc.  They did not take into account things like process/procedure changes required for the business, ramp up/migration times, service delivery differences, etc.  These were initially brushed aside and hand-waved away, but the issues related to these things crept into the hundreds of millions of dollars of consequences. 

My advice - don't ignore the soft stuff.  It matters.



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[ Cloud Computing ] Re: State of affairs : Moving Healthcare Appli cations to the Cloud..

Here is another instance of an ondemand Patient/Clinical trial related
Product/App moved in to SaaS model
http://www.opsource.net/news/press/read_news.php?&newsid=81

All these seem to suggest that more and more such apps. may follow in
course of time....


-Sankar

On Dec 24, 8:55 am, "Ed Loessi" <ed.loe...@faulknertechnologies.com>
wrote:
> I saw this presentation on Slideshare today.
>
> http://www.slideshare.net/JustinKestelyn/oracle-in-the-cloud-aws-webi...
>
> If you go to slide 28 you will see an overview of an Oracle/Amazon solution
> for Harvard Medical School for a drug simulation application.  Not sure what
> compliance examples they faced but I imagine that a full blown version of
> that type of solution would be handling lots of patient/participant data at
> some point.  I would venture to say that Amazon is poking around what it
> takes to offer services in the market so it may be that at the moment that
> the early clouds are not fully compliant but I suspect that they will figure
> it out fairly quickly.
>
> Ed Loessi
>
> Ed Loessi
> CEO Faulkner Technologies
> Email: ed.loe...@faulknertechnologies.com
>
> Contact Details: Boston, MA, U.S.A.
> Office Phone: 1-857-241-3827
> Fax: 1-877-724-8653
> Mobile Phone: 1-617-877-7336
>
> Contact Details; Brisbane, Australia
> Office Phone: 07-3254-1417
> Fax: 07-3319-6150
> Mobile: 0409-191-302
>
> Enterprise Software - Easily Defined, Quickly Built, Delivered as a Service
> Chat: Skype: edfaulkner
> Contact Me: Linkedin
> <http://www.linkedin.com/in/edloessi>Twitter<http://twitter.com/EdLoessi>
>
> On Tue, Dec 23, 2008 at 10:36 PM, Sankar Nagarajan <
>
>
>
> nagarajansan...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > @ Barbara - "And I agree with John, that many applications are not CPU
> > bound, however
> > they can be very much storage & latency bound in research areas.
> > Research
> > areas have massive amounts of unstructured, high value data to
> > manage."
>
> > Barbara,
>
> >  I think private clouds for Research organisations that have to do
> > with huge number crunching and deal with massive amounts of data are
> > already starting to appear. As an instance, a few weeks ago, HPC (High
> > performance computing) providers such as RSystems last month partnered
> > with Wolform Research (the company that develops the popular Mathworks
> > scientific analysis and reporting tools) on a Cloud computing
> > initiative.
>
> >http://www.rsystemsinc.com
>
> > Wolform Research is enabling a pay per use kind of a model (SaaS model
> > for their software) that will help researchers and firms to rent and
> > run computing intensive modeling and analysis online.
>
> > - Sankar
>
> > On Dec 23, 10:05 pm, "Barbara Bour" <barb...@principiainc.com> wrote:
> > > Dear Cloud Computing Members,
>
> > > I am really enjoying this stream.
>
> > > While I agree with John that there is opportunity for routine application
> > > consolidation, development improvements, etc.. The medical industry is at
> > > cross roads, where reducing costs will be essential and largely driven by
> > > external factors: Health Care costs of aging population, and very
> > > problematic addiction to high margin, block buster drug business model
> > > within pharma.
>
> > > Pharma will become the next GM if they don't aggressively apply every
> > trick
> > > in the book including routing application consolidation/improvements,
> > > leverage of open source & cloud computing to drive down their burn rates
> > > because drug profits will be driven down by overwhelming external forces.
>
> > > Medical will become more dysfunctional and expensive if it continues in
> > its
> > > current state.
>
> > > And I agree with John, that many applications are not CPU bound, however
> > > they can be very much storage & latency bound in research areas. Research
> > > areas have massive amounts of unstructured, high value data to manage.
>
> > >   _____
>
> > > From: cloud-computing@googlegroups.com
> > > [mailto:cloud-computing@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of John Brothers
> > > Sent: Monday, December 22, 2008 4:57 PM
> > > To: cloud-computing@googlegroups.com
> > > Subject: [ Cloud Computing ] Re: State of affairs : Moving Healthcare
> > Appli
> > > cations to the Cloud..
>
> > > Yeah, I've done a fair amount of software dev for both the clinical trial
> > > management side of Pharma as well as Sales and Marketing.   I don't see
> > any
> > > obvious wins for CC in the Sales and Marketing, but then if they were
> > > obvious, people would be doing them already :)
>
> > > On the Trial Management side...  it seems like there's more potential for
> > CC
> > > in trial management, but I struggle with what that might look like.  They
> > > generally are never CPU-bound.    In other words, there's still a lot of
> > > potential for plain old regular software development improvements to
> > their
> > > processes and systems, before we even consider CC.
>
> > > As web applications for CTM proliferate, I could see the use of clouds to
> > > manage demand and ease deployment, but that's hardly a killer app.
>
> > > john
>
> > > On Mon, Dec 22, 2008 at 3:16 PM, Jan Klincewicz <
> > jan.klincew...@gmail.com>
> > > wrote:
>
> > > It actually gets a little more complicated than that.  Pharma typically
> > > consists of Drug Discovery (the Science part) as well as typical Front
> > > Office (Corporate, Regulatory, Marketing/Sales etc.)  They have totally
> > > different needs and agendas.  I have found the Science side to usually be
> > > somewhat autonomous and cutting edge, adopting supercomputers, grids,
> > etc...
> > > much more open to Linux, Open Source etc.  The Corporate side is more
> > > conservative, more MSFT / Solaris-oriented but they equally share
> > regulatory
> > > compliance painpoints.
>
> > > Healthcare likewise, comprises clinical operations as well as Insurance
> > > Processing. On the hospital floors, and in the clinics, you are likely to
> > > see most apps delivered by Citrix Presentation Server (XenApp) which
> > > actually does a pretty good job of enforcing security.  I can see why it
> > is
> > > so popular where "locked-down" thin clients have no way to capture
> > patient
> > > data.
>
> > > Though I work strictly on the XenServer side of Citrix, I am becoming
> > > increasingly impressed by how their 18-year-old technology is relevant
> > today
> > > (even more) in CC environments.  They answered a lot of the concerns
> > being
> > > discussed here over a decade ago ...
>
> > > I dont see a lot of dBase III apps anymore (which is shame... I was once
> > an
> > > ace Clipper jockey back in the day ...)
>
> > > On Mon, Dec 22, 2008 at 10:21 AM, Sal Magnone <salmagn...@gmail.com>
> > wrote:
> > > >>I don't think it's as easy with SoX as saying 'as long as somebody
> > > >>takes care of compliance issues'...
>
> > > Yes, but it's common with HIPAA. The easiest way to unload your privacy
> > > concerns is to actually unload them. Now that doesn't really remove
> > > liability but it does show a reasonable attempt and spreads the liability
> > > around. From the perspective of many in healthcare at the top, anybody
> > > handles IT better than they do.
>
> > > One thing in this thread that I noted (and this applies to my last
> > > statement) - we seem to be lumping PHARMA in with Healthcare (actual care
> > > and care facilities) and healthcare related services (like utilization
> > > management and TPA activity). These are three different worlds from a
> > > requirements and corporate IT sophistication standpoint. These three is
> > > clearly in three different evolutionary places with the odd exception.
> > They
> > > are also in three different mindsets.
>
> > > For the most part this is the way I see it-
> > > PHARMA is about science as well as money and they know how to use
> > technology
> > > and embrace it.
> > > CARE is about the same but with much greater aversion to cost and
> > > complexity. Lot's of COBOL in hospitals. Everything costs too much but
> > > they'll use if they have to.
> > > SERVICES is the place where desk fans are cooling i486 boxes with 100meg
> > HDs
> > > running DBASE III+ apps that are backed up to local tape (maybe).
>
> > > /Sal
>
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: cloud-computing@googlegroups.com
>
> > > [mailto:cloud-computing@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Daniel
> > Drozdzewski
> > > Sent: Monday, December 22, 2008 9:43 AM
> > > To: cloud-computing@googlegroups.com
> > > Subject: [ Cloud Computing ] Re: State of affairs : Moving Healthcare
> > Appli
> > > cations to the Cloud..
>
> > > On Sat, Dec 20, 2008 at 8:23 PM, Jan Klincewicz
> > > <jan.klincew...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > > > I have sold into many Pharma / Health Care customers, and they do have
> > > > serious compliance issues.  That being said, they were often more than
> > > > willing to outsource their operations to HP / IBM / EDS etc.  As long
> > as
> > > > SOMEBODY takes care of the compliance issues, I think they will be
> > > > satisfied.  There is no real magic to it, other than reams of
> > > documentation,
> > > > paperwork, change controls, lock-downs etc.
>
> > > Hey guys,
>
> > > I don't think it's as easy with SoX as saying 'as long as somebody
> > > takes care of compliance issues'...
>
> > > Isn't the point of SoX to impose as many in-house safety measures and
> > > double checks within the company as possible together with reporting
> > > to regulators?
> > > (In)famous section 404 talks solely on internal controls and risk
> > > assessment.
>
> > > This makes me think, that for the cloud to be picked up by big
> > > companies (that have great deal of SoX compliance need), cloud vendors
> > > must provide service that is open to attestation by the customers and
> > > can provide strong assurance (by the application of crypto, protocols,
> > > certificates, etc) so that not just a contract with the vendor, but
> > > used technologies and protocols impose properties needed by the big
> > > business.
>
> > > I also agree that 24/7 availability is another issue that needs
> > > addressing for mission critical apps to me moved up to the clouds.
> > > Tandem(HP-Non Stop) and few others provide the hardware platform, but
> > > there is also need for replicating protocols, assurance of data
> > > integrity across duplicated nodes etc. It is considerably easier to
> > > run one specialized
>
> ...
>
> read more »- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

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[ Cloud Computing ] Re: Compute surface as a traded commodity?

"Do end users really need to see this level of complexity?"

No, but they're not cloud computing's direct target. There are several levels of abstraction before the customized "service" reaches the end user. You're right, the end user wants commodities delivered simply and reliably. The direct target of cloud computing (enterprises, xSPs) DO want complexity. In fact, the more complex the better for many...they trade the cost of complexity for the flexibility and differentiality of service. Then other direct users will prefer a cloud computer who more directly provides that 'simplicity', as long as the cost per GHzFSBMem is low and predictable.

We'll witness a pre-cambrian explosion of end user, middlemen, and cloud providers over the next fifty years. Eventually, natural economic selection will take its course. Those in each category able to project a long-term reality of customer satisfaction, profitability and shareholder value will eat or absorb the non-productive. And eventually, the productive will die as new niche players show better value prop, shareholder value and customer sat. End users will drive this natural selection process, depending on their group and individual needs.

Dave

On Tue, Dec 16, 2008 at 1:26 PM, Paul Moxon <paul@moxonsonline.com> wrote:

Do end users really need to see this level of complexity? Internally, the cloud provider might want to base the charge rates on various measurements, such as CPU, memory, bus speed, etc. However, the end user will probably want something much simpler e.g. I want to run on a (virtual) single host or on a cluster or, even, I want 24x7 availability. Elastica uses a fairly simple system like this when you build an application to be deployed in their cloud. Anything more complex can make it overwhelming for anyone but the most sophisticated user.

 

To continue Ray Nugent's comparison of petroleum and West Texas sweet light, when I buy gasoline for my car, I get the choice of Regular or Premium at the pump. Now, I don't know what goes into the regular gasoline blend…how much is West Texas sweet light, or Brent light or Saudi heavy oil…and, guess what, I don't care. The regular gasoline is good enough for my 8-year old Jeep and that's all that I need to know. Similarly, end users don't want to be confused by a huge menu of CPU speeds, memory allocations, bus speeds, etc. – if you keep it simple, then they will get it (as long as they can upgrade to a different configuration if needed).

 

Paul.

 


From: cloud-computing@googlegroups.com [mailto:cloud-computing@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of William Louth (JINSPIRED.COM)
Sent: Tuesday, December 16, 2008 12:59 PM


To: cloud-computing@googlegroups.com
Subject: [ Cloud Computing ] Re: Compute surface as a traded commodity?

 

I am not sure why we are looking for one single resource to meter. I would expect that various resource meters will be used as cost drivers in determining appropriate charges that will be passed up to the next layer on the cloud computing stack with each layer in the stack introducing its own meters derived partially from lower level meters - partially because there must be value added somewhere.

Once we get above the bare metal platform I expect to see more diversity in costing and billing approaches. Currently we seem to have carried over a large amount of baggage tied to current (legacy in this context) enterprise system/network management approaches that provide very coarse grain resource metering at the process level or data traffic pattern levels. I am confident this will change to more (user/software) activity based costing with the metering correlated to actual software execution performed on behalf of the user or cloud service. Unlike our opaque OS based process containers threads of execution in the cloud will operate as lawyers do today - billing the client context for every activity perform using various meters (wall clock time, number of photocopied sheets, number of letters dispatches with postage,........). Threads will not touch a resource unless they have a client billing code. This will never be possible with ESM/NSM because one cannot see the computing above it and the other below it.

http://www.jinspired.com/products/jxinsight/meteringthecloud.html

Kind regards,

William


Christopher Drumgoole wrote:

Given the variances in CPU clock speeds, Gigahertz Hour is easier to
compare.
 
---
Chris Drumgoole 
 
 
 
-----Original Message-----
From: cloud-computing@googlegroups.com
[mailto:cloud-computing@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Pittard, Rick
Sent: Tuesday, December 16, 2008 11:50 AM
To: cloud-computing@googlegroups.com
Subject: [ Cloud Computing ] Re: Compute surface as a traded commodity?
 
 
Actually, the price of a barrel of oil is for a very specific grade at a
specific location.  The real prices vary depending on quality and
location - maybe just like a CPU-hour should.
 
Rick
 
 
-----Original Message-----
From: cloud-computing@googlegroups.com
[mailto:cloud-computing@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Jim Houghton
Sent: Tuesday, December 16, 2008 9:16 AM
To: cloud-computing@googlegroups.com
Subject: FW: [ Cloud Computing ] Compute surface as a traded commodity?
 
 
Interesting thread ... I had discussions with executives at a large
investment bank (one of the few still around today!) as far back as 2002
when we were implementing large grids for risk & portfolio analysis that
leveraged 'scavenged' resources for some of the compute footprint.  I
agree
this will happen, but interoperability is not the only obstacle.
Placing
security off to the side - let's assume for the discussion someone has
already overcome their technology or compliance hang-ups - there is a
major
business challenge to overcome.
 
We all know what an ounce of gold, or bushel of corn, or a barrel of oil
is
around the globe.  So what is the equivalent unit of trade for computing
cycles?
 
 Think before you answer ... 'CPU hour' just wants to jump off your
tongue,
but as we all know not all CPU's are created equal (even by the same
manufacturer).  Then of course there's memory, bus speed, network
bandwidth,
network throughput, operating system, latency to/from your origination
point, disk read/write speed ... I could go on and so can you. I've been
living this for 6+ years working with clients who want to build internal
utilities (clouds), and even there it's difficult to get agreement as
this
forms the basis for what they are going to get charged for the resources
they consume.  It's not much of a 'utility' if users got a flat annual
allocation charge, is it?  Yet that's by far the most common situation
in
large enterprises today.
 
There's the closet economist in me who feels (hopes) someone will just
start
such a market and soon thereafter the laws of supply and demand will set
the
appropriate prices.  Those with high quality service will be sold out
and
can increase their prices, with the reverse also true.  However,
especially
with the current state of global economic affairs, I am doubtful it will
happen anytime soon.  Nor do I think we can count on any standards forum
to
tackle such an issue, and the major vendors will undoubtedly look at
normalization (translate: commoditization) of their technologies as a
bad
thing.
 
Anyway, hopefully this provokes some thoughts - look forward to your
responses.
 
 Jim
_________________
Jim Houghton
CTO and Founder
Adaptivity, Inc.
(845) 494-9419
 
www.adaptivity.com
 
-----Original Message-----
From: cloud-computing@googlegroups.com [mailto:] On Behalf Of Simon
Plant
Sent: Tuesday, December 16, 2008 7:03 AM
To: cloud-computing@googlegroups.com
Subject: [ Cloud Computing ] Compute surface as a traded commodity?
 
Bruce wrote:
  
Will the "Cloud" ever become a pool of hosting providers who pitch
    
their
prices, SLA's and storage cost so customers will come to their "cloud"
for
services?
  
I foresee a time into the future where the compute surface is
virtualized
and standardized enough that hosting contracts can be traded as a
commodity
on a market, rather than the RFP type process we have today. 
 
Such agreement would allow business to place a deal on an exchange much
like
FX today and get bids to run based on some parameters.  IT hosters would
price the deal with a spread in the same way as a currency trade today,
the
deal done in a matter of seconds and hosted for the duration of a
contract
window.
 
 If virtualization vendors deliver on their hybrid end-vision, this could
be
a reality of packaging workloads with SLA manifests and using internet
vMotion-type tools to migrate. It would fundamentally change the way we
write software frameworks and applications themselves to be more self
contained and highly standardized to achieve the best 'tradability'. 
 
Interoperability via standards between VM platforms, portability of
data,
code business logic and processes are all key to how we build out the
Cloud.
 
 
Such openness may be a far extreme view, but would you want the opposite
view of the world where switching costs and lock-in are extremely
constraining and we are forever stuck in a platform cycle of
distribute-and-consolidate?
 
 
Simon Plant
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  







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[ Cloud Computing ] Re: Cloud Computing ROI model

Hi Geva,

In fairness, if you don't take those things into consideration in the cost of switching, it's going to be a mess.  Working with a big pharma client who was outsourcing all their IT to external providers proved this.  The initial calculations really just focused on the ledger costs - headcount, power, cooling, server costs, etc.  They did not take into account things like process/procedure changes required for the business, ramp up/migration times, service delivery differences, etc.  These were initially brushed aside and hand-waved away, but the issues related to these things crept into the hundreds of millions of dollars of consequences. 

My advice - don't ignore the soft stuff.  It matters.

--Shane
http://shanebrauner.org/
http://twitter.com/shanebrauner


On Wed, Dec 24, 2008 at 2:41 AM, Geva Perry <gevaperry@gmail.com> wrote:

Thanks, Sankar. All your points above are valid, but not relevant to
what I'm looking for. I was hoping that someone had worked on a
calculation they can share that analyzes the cost benefits from
switching to a public cloud from an on-premise data center or a
dedicated hosting environment.

You are raising some of the challenges in migrating to a cloud, which
should of course be taken into account in the little exercise I am
trying to work on, particularly if they add to the costs of moving to
a cloud (management, monitoring, security, etc.) and thus reduce the
ROI of such a move.

On Dec 23, 7:54 pm, Sankar Nagarajan <nagarajansan...@gmail.com>
wrote:
> Geva,
>
> All your points holds good.
>
> However, for a knowledgeable customer, there are more selling points
> or differentiators (in terms of your services) needed
>
> * Reliability is seen as an issue on the cloud - How does one address
> this?
>
> * Protection/Security is seen as a major issue on the cloud :- How
> does one address this?
>
> * Cloud deployment for moderate to complex applications is not easy -
> (Custom App-stack/Machine Images) - How does one address this?
>
> * Monitoring ,Management and maintenance of deployed apps are not so
> easy for every app- How is this addressed?
>
> * There are various clouds / cost models , If one can make a
> comparison, consult and be able to help a client to find the best
> choice for their budget and service them
>    this would be add punch to the Value -Proposition?
>
> In essence, it is granted that clouds come with their inherent
> benefits and value , However to sell this model effectively with an
> ROI model, from a solution provider or SaaS viewpoint, a number of
> points (i have mentioned a few) have to be considered and factored in
> the value proposition to a end user,dependening on one's capabilities.
>
> Sankar Nagarajanhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/nsk007
>
> On Dec 24, 12:54 am, Geva Perry <gevape...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > Hello all,
>
> > Has anyone developed an ROI model for cloud computing (specifically,
> > public Infrastructure-as-a-Service a-la AWS)?
>
> > I'm trying to demonstrate to a few companies both the hard and "soft"
> > cost-savings of migrating to a public cloud environment. I'm
> > attempting to encompass as many aspects as possible. Including:
>
> >  -- Costs savings for servers, storage, networking, software licenses,
> > power & cooling, real estate, system administration labor -- mainly
> > focusing on the possibility to eliminate over-provisioning and scale
> > on-demand with a pay-per-use pricing model
> > -- Costs savings due to decreased provisioning time
> > -- Shortening of application lifecycle and decreased time-to-market of
> > new products and services
> > -- Increased reliability (DR, etc.) at lower costs
> > -- Increased performance
>
> > Of course, the model also needs to take into account various
> > "switching costs".
>
> > If anyone has any concrete thoughts on the matter, or perhaps just
> > links to quantitative case studies, it would be greatly appreciated.
>
> > Geva Perryhttp://gevaperry.typepad.com




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